11/10/09, 5 PM

October 2009 HIGHLIGHTS. October 2009 was a month with temperatures that 
were unseasonably cold, and with well above average rainfall, breaking a 
two month dry spell.

In DeKalb, the average October temperature was 46.7 degrees, or 5.3 
degrees cooler than the 52.0 degree 30 year average. This was the third 
coolest October ever, and the coolest high temperatures for October ever. 
We had 9 days where the temperature failed to hit 50 degrees.

As for precipitation, October 2009 reversed September's dry spell, as 
we had much above average rainfall. We had 6.40" of liquid equivalent, 
with 2.60" being average. That's around 2.5 times above normal!
By October 31, we should see 32.40" of rain; up until then, we had 42.38". 
We are still running 10" above average on rainfall for the year.

THE WINTER OUTLOOK. El Nino conditions continue with temperatures in the 
ENSO regions of the central and eastern Pacific now up to 1.6 degrees 
Celsius warmer than average. That is considered to be a borderline 
moderate/strong El Nino. Furthermore, most model guidance now suggests 
that the warm waters are peaking, and we can confirm this by sub-sea water 
temperatures slightly cooler than what they are now. It is fairly safe to 
say at this point, that this is about as "bad" as it will get.

The November forecast from NOAA has just been released, along with current 
sea surface temperatures and forecasts:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-s
tatus-fcsts-web.pdf

In moderate El Ninos, the autumn seasons can be cool, and certainly we 
have seen that develop over the past month. Historically, research has shown 
that the November-December time frame is cold and often snowy for 
December; after that, the snow tends to be much lighter. Also,
winters are typically drier in moderate El Ninos, although a lot of the 
snow may fall in December. Because of the strong El Nino, we may see an 
early onset to conditions later this month. Already, with California and 
the southern U.S. being hammered by rainfall, we may be seeing the 
incipient stages of the expected El Nino weather pattern coming on.

Here's the breakdown as I see it:

Probability of Fall 2009 (September 1-November 30, 2009) being:

Warmer than average: 30%
Average: 30%
Colder than average: 40%

Probability of Fall 2009 (September 1-November 30, 2009) being:

Wetter than average: 33%
Average: 33%
Drier than average: 33%

Probability of Winter 2009 (December 1, 2009-February 28, 2010) being:

Warmer than average: 40%
Average: 30%
Colder than average: 30%

Probability of Winter 2009 (December 1, 2009-February 28, 2010) being:

Wetter than average: 25%
Average: 35%
Drier than average: 40%

ENERGY. Oil prices continue to climb, now again above $80 a barrel,
as the devaluing of the dollar continues (Ida largely went through the 
eastern oil production region in the Gulf without leaving nary a scratch). 
Gold topped $1,100 per ounce this week as a flight to quality continues. 
Demand for oil here in the United States is levelling off, but still low, 
as gas prices continue to climb. Despite the high oil prices, natural gas 
prices continued to decline. At our last discussion, the December futures 
contract at Henry Hub was right around 60 cents per therm. Today, the 
December contract broke through the 45 cent mark, and it was down nearly 2 
cents today alone. However, with oil climbing, it's only a matter of time 
before the remaining industries flip over to natural gas. This should have 
the effect of stabilizing prices to some degree. However, with continued 
high supply, and even somewhat additional demand, a price fall of another 
5 cents can't be ruled out in the short term, though we are probably near 
the bottom unless we have a very mild winter.

DISCLAIMER. Although NIU Weather strives for accuracy, forecasting of
weather is a science and results are not guaranteed. These forward-looking
outlooks are for informational purposes only. Please stay up-to-date on
the latest short and long-term forecasts from NIU Weather by going to our
website at http://weather.admin.niu.edu, and check out our daily and
weekend forecasts via web or email for the latest information.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. Complete information on the current long-term drought 
continuing in the northern Plains, small parts of the southern and southeastern 
U.S., California and elsewhere can be found at the following sites:

http://www.drought.noaa.gov

http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/drought/moisture.htm

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

For DeKalb's historic climate information and a wireless version of the page, 
visit the NIU Geography Department climate page at:

http://climate.niu.edu

Thanks as always to the Geography department, and Kevin Nasiatka,
Ian Chang, Rose Sengenberger, Alecia Osborne, Phil Jagielo, and
Scott Smith for the monthly climate information.

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Gilbert Sebenste                                                     ********
(My opinions only!)                                                  ******
Staff Meteorologist, Northern Illinois University                      ****
E-mail: gilbert@niu.edu                                               ***
web: http://weather.admin.niu.edu                                      **
Work phone: 815-753-5492                                                *
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